Saturday, February 21, 2009

Prediction: Chinese Unrest

China will have its first large-scale rumbling of civil unrest as a consequence of collapsing export demand and thus employment. They'll manage to tamp it down (for the most part), this year. Don't take a bet on that holding together longer-term: they have a horrifying debt-financed overcapacity problem and there is no easy way for them to get out of it. The worst of it will be a year or two in the future.

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