Sunday, December 7, 2008

Unemployment Rate Truth

Unemployment is NOT at 6.7% in reality. The 6.7% figure is an accounting ruse, a shadow government statistic. A better measurement of unemployment (the BLS U-6 below) is at a whopping 12.5%!

This data is "better" because of the information included - real people with real lives. But more, the data still excludes "discouraged workers", a data element defined away under the Clinton administration. This latter data element was used when measuring unemployment in the late 70's. So, what does unemployment today look like when measured in the way it was measured in the 70's? More like 13-16%! See below:

A more truthful "ballpark" estimate for unemployment is take whatever figure you hear in the media and multiply it by 2 - then you'll be much closer to reality.

The nationwide unemployment rate during the Great Depression was ~ 25% (assuming data measurement of U-6 + "discouraged workers"). Currently, based on our worst-case measurements above, it looks like we may already be 2/3 of the way there.


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